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Description
Economic growth in Romania has been significantly influenced by migration dynamics, marked by increased immigration and sustained emigration. This dual challenge affects economic stability, labor market supply, and demographic balance. While the arrival of immigrants, especially from Ukraine since 2022, has temporarily boosted the labor force and contributed to economic growth, the ongoing outflow of skilled Romanian workers to Western Europe poses risks to long-term development.
This paper examines how this dual migration trend has shaped Romania’s economic trajectory. Using Eurostat data from 2019 to 2023, the research combines quantitative analysis with demographic-economic modeling to estimate the long-term effects on Romania’s GDP growth and labor market dynamics. The study also analyzes qualitative insights from surveys and policy documents to understand socio-economic and political factors shaping migration patterns.
The analysis highlights the differences between immigrant and emigrant populations, focusing on age, education, and employment sectors. Preliminary data indicate that while immigration has increased the labor supply, especially in lower-skilled sectors, the concurrent loss of skilled workers undermines these economic gains. The demographic model projects that if emigration persists, Romania may struggle to sustain economic growth despite temporary boosts from refugee inflows.
The paper also evaluates the effectiveness of current integration measures for immigrants and retention strategies for native talent. The findings suggest that a holistic policy approach is needed to balance the benefits of immigration with efforts to reduce emigration, particularly by addressing factors driving skilled workers abroad.
This study contributes to the broader discussion on how migration dynamics influence economic growth in countries experiencing both inflows and outflows. By understanding the dual impact on labor markets and economic stability, policymakers can develop strategies to foster sustainable growth in Romania.
