Speaker
Description
Economic growth in Romania has been significantly influenced by migration trends in recent years, particularly marked by increased immigration and sustained high levels of emigration. This dynamic presents a unique challenge to Romania’s labor market and demographic stability, shaping the country's economic trajectory. The recent surge in non-EU immigration, particularly due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees since 2022, has had both positive and uncertain impacts on economic growth. While the increase in the labor force has helped address immediate labor shortages, the persistent emigration of skilled workers continues to pose risks to sustainable economic development and long-term growth potential.
This paper focuses on analyzing the recent immigration trends in Romania from 2019 to 2023 and their impact on economic growth. The primary focus is on how Romania, as a Central and Eastern European country, has integrated immigrants, particularly Ukrainian refugees, into its labor force, and how this has contributed to the country’s economic performance. The study employs Eurostat data and a semi-structural general equilibrium model to assess the potential output increase in Romania’s economy due to increased immigration, taking into account demographic shifts and sector-specific impacts.
Preliminary findings reveal a marked increase in Romania’s immigration rate post-2020, with a sharp rise in 2022, driven largely by Ukrainian refugees under the EU’s temporary protection scheme. This immigration wave has positively impacted economic growth by filling gaps in key sectors such as agriculture, construction, and services. However, the long-term impact on potential output remains uncertain, primarily due to challenges in retaining these immigrants as permanent residents. The study also explores the socio-economic integration of these groups, including the challenges of skill mismatches and regional disparities.
The paper concludes that while increased immigration has brought short-term economic benefits to Romania, sustained integration efforts are necessary to ensure long-term economic growth and stability. The study will also discuss policy measures that could enhance integration and increase the likelihood of long-term settlement by immigrants, thereby strengthening Romania's economic prospects.
